Continue reading »]]> It’s that time of year again, time for me to unveil my NCAA Tournament Bracket.

College basketball may be one of my least favorite sports. The extended shot-clock, over-abundance of time-outs, 20 minute halves, and inept offenses bastardize a game that is meant to be played up tempo. It’s been four years since I last watched a college basketball game, yet I continue to fill out brackets every year. In spite of not watching the game, I always end faring pretty well in my pools. Two years ago, I finished second in a pool of over 250 brackets.

How do I do it when I don’t even watch the games or know the players? I always bet on Duke.

My method is unscientific and ha nothing to do with any inside information, but everything to do with my overall affinity for the Duke program and the rest of the world’s disdain for the program. Barring a major upset, you know Duke is going to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament every year. Since my alma mater doesn’t compete on the Division I level, and I have no proverbial dog in the fight, I always pick Duke to win the NCAA Championship. Simply put, they are the only NCAA team I can stomach to watch for even a couple of minutes.Most college basketball fans love to see Duke fail and this taints their thinking. I mentioned that I finished 2nd in a pool of over 250 contestants in 2010. I was the only contestant in that pool that picked Duke to win the NCAA Tournament and one of only 10 contestants that had them advancing to the Final Four, in spite of a #1 seed.

It should comes as no surprise that in this year’s bracket, I once again have Duke winning the national title, just as I have for the past two decades.

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Yes, I am a Mavs homer, and as such a disciple of Dirk. Over the years, I’ve listened to the critiques of the big German’s game–”he’s too soft,” “he’s not a leader”, “he doesn’t play defense”, etc.–and have tried to beat back as many dissenters as possible. I hoped that after leading the Mavericks to their first NBA title last summer, perception around the league would change. Unfortunately, it hasn’t.

Before Charles Barkley or Kenny Smith decide they want to attack Dirk’s game again, perhaps they should first read a study conducted by Harvard’s Dr. Kirk Goldsberry. Dr. Goldsberry, a visiting scholar at Harvard, employed the use of “spatial analysis” to generate a formula for determining the NBA’s best shooter.

I highly recommend you reading Dr. Goldsberry’s report, but here’s a brief summary. Commonly used stats such as field-goal percentage and three-point percentage are ineffective means of determining the league’s “best shooter” and in and of themselves, for the simple reason that they do not tell the entire story of shooter’s ability or range. Dr. Goldsberry developed a much more effective plan.

Using game data sets for every NBA game played between 2006 and 2011, we compiled a spatial field goal database that included Cartesian coordinates (x,y) for every field goal attempted in this 5-year period. This data set includes player name, shot location, and shot outcome for over 700,000 field goal attempts. We mapped the shot data atop a base map of a NBA basketball court (Figure 1). Although a regulation NBA court is 4,700 ft², (50ft x 94ft), almost all (>98%) field goal attempts occur within a 1,284 ft² area in between the baseline and a relatively thin buffer around the 3-point arc; we call this area the “scoring area.” We divided the scoring area into a grid consisting of 1,284 unique “shooting cells,” each 1 ft² (Figure 1). To quantify shooting range, we applied spatial analyses to evaluate shooting performance across the grid and within each shooting cell.

So they plotted the “scoring area” on a grid, breaking it down into 1,284 cells. The first metric they developed using this grid is called “Spread.” To find spread, you simply count the number of cells from which a particular player has attempted at least one field goal (0 to 1,284), divide this number by 1,284 and then multiplying by 100 to get a percentage.

Another metric Dr. Goldsberry developed was “Range,” which is simply the count of the squares from which a particular player averages more than 1 point per attempt (again, 0 to 1,284), divided by 1,284, multiplied by 100 to get a percentage. As Dr. Goldsberry notes in his report, this provides an accurate way to measure a shooter’s “potency.”

Dirk Nowitzki ranks 4th in the NBA (from 2006 through 2011) in “Range” at 29.0%, behind only Steve Nash, Ray Allen and Kobe Bryant, but Dirk is the highest ranked 7 footer and comes in 10 percentage points above the NBA average.

Shooting is not everything in the NBA, but the study proves yet again what a rare talent we have here in Dallas and just how privileged we are each time we see him take the Court.

Interestingly enough, the Mavs are heavily cited in Dr. Goldsberry’s report. The Mavs decision to use a zone defense against the Heat in the NBA Finals is cited as an example of NBA teams using “spatial analysis” to formulate winning game plans. The Mavs seem to be ahead of the curve in using data like this, so it will be interesting to see how they use data like to “Range” and “Spread” in the future.

Continue reading »]]> Two years ago, I had the privilege of attending the NBA All-Star Saturday Night Festivities. It was Dallas’ first time to host the NBA All-Star Game in over 20 years. Even so, the only event I wanted to attend were NBA All-Star Saturday Night festivities. After all, everyone knows the All-Star game itself is only slightly more entertaining than a screening of The English Patient. The real excitement takes place on the Saturday night before the game with the skills competition, three point contest and slam dunk contest.

As a kid, I made it a point to watch these festivities every season, even though my Mavericks rarely had any participants. It was big deal to see what tricks Spud Webb, Dominque Wilkins or Michael Jordan might perform.  As the 80′s gave way to the 90′s, I noticed that not only did the contest become redundant, but also the participants become more and more minor (or Miner–Harold Miner–as it may be).

By the time I got to college, the slam dunk contest had become completely irrelevant in my sports world. Attending the event in person, did nothing to change this perspective. While all the other events of All-Star Saturday night lived up to their hype and were cohesive, entertaining and contained a “plot”, the slam dunk contest was more a “stream-of-consciousness” or “theatre of the absurd” project of awkwardness. I’d be hard-pressed to tell you who won the event that night, but I believe it might have been Nate Robinson, then of the New York Knicks.

Based on the reviews of I have read of this year’s contest, it seems it’s only gotten worse. It got me to thinking, is the dunk dead?

From a pop cultural perspective, I think the answer is a definite “yes.” It reached it’s peak in the mid to late 80′s and there really hasn’t been anything new attempted since Jordan’s leap from the free throw line. There is nothing that humanly-possible left to be done in the world of the “slam dunk.” Today, it’s all about who slam “harder” or at least look the most intense in the act and immediate follow-up of a dunk. As such, the slam dunk contest is a bit of a dinosaur and deserves to put of its misery.

Even in the wake of the “Lob City Era” of the LA Clippers, I find it hard to understand the excitement generated by an in-game dunk in the NBA. The dunk counts for 2 points, just like any layup. Yet it awakens something primal inside the player that executes one and inside many of the fans who “oooh and ahhh” over ever fingertip that scrapes iron.

We live in an age, where virtually every NBA player can dunk. Why do we so excited when they do?

What would the NBA game be like if the dunk was no longer a legal play? Wouldn’t be more challenging, and thus more awe inspiring, to see a 7 footer knock down long-distance jumpers than to scream and shout as if they are exhibiting ‘roid-rage as they place the ball inside the hoop?

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I hate to brag, but yes, this a picture of me modeling one the Dallas Mavericks’ championship rings. The Mavs are my team and, together, we continue to celebrate the 2011 NBA title.

For LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and Steve Nash, this is what an NBA Championship ring looks like.

For Dwight Howard and Deron Williams, come to Dallas and soon you will have on of these as well.

Continue reading »]]> By now, I’m sure you have all seen the replays of the Blake Griffin dunk over Kendrick Perkins. Now I like Blake Griffin. I think he’s a tremendous young talent on the court and high character guy off the court. And I’ll admit; it was a very powerful dunk, but I’ll never understand the reaction Griffin displayed after the dunk. It’s the  “I’m going to jump up and place this ball in this cylinder, then I’m going to stare at someone–anyone, even some random dude sitting court side– until one of my teammates either pushes me, hits me or grabs me.”

Why not simply score the bucket and get back on defense? Why the need for all the dramatics?

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• The Mavericks have posted some rather impressive defensive numbers over the past two games, giving up an average up only 68 points during the home-stand. Last night the Mavs gave a franchise record-low 60 points against the Kings and held them to franchise record-low 25.6% shooting percentage. Neither the Bucks or Kings are championship contenders, but it shouldn’t take away from what the Mavs have done.

• The Mavs have certainly looked more crisp over the past couple of games. One particular area they have looked especially good in is 3-point shooting, where they have shot 44.7% over the past two games, after an anemic start for the season.

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•  As we’ve come to expect over the past few years, this regular season edition of Mavs/Celtics felt much more like the playoffs, although the home crowd didn’t get into until late in the 4th quarter. There was a defensive intensity, dramatic shots, and of course Dirk hitting the improbable game winner with his tongue hanging out. The “and 1″ left Dirk 3 points shy of 23,000 point heading into Friday’s home game against the Milwaukee Bucks.

• Tonight we saw why, even at 38, Jason Kidd is such a valuable part of this team. The Celtics pressure defense pestered the Mavs all night long,  preventing them from every pulling away. As the only pure point guard on the roster, Kidd is much better suited to run the offense in these type of situations. One of the main reasons Dirk was held in check until late in the game was that there was no one able to get him his shots. It’s not a knock on Jason Terry and Delonte West necessarily. The Celtics are one of the best teams in the NBA at defending the passing lanes. You need a guard with Kidd’s elite passing skills to muster any semblance of ball movement.

• The Mavs improved to 2-0 in the Yi Jianlian era.

• The Mavs shot 44.3% from the field tonight. They have shot better than 43% in all 6 of their victories, and going back to last year’s playoffs, they are 20-4 when they shoot 40% or better from the field.

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After arguably two of the worst games of his career, Dirk Nowitzki responded on Tuesday night in typical Dirk fashion, putting up 18 points and 7  rebounds, on 9/10 shooting from the floor and the Mavs were a +42 with Nowitzki on the floor. For the first time really all season, his patented one-legged-fade-away was working to perfection. When that shot is working, Dirk is the most unstoppable scorer in the NBA–PERIOD!

• Brandan Wright continues to impress off the bench. Though he has yet to play minutes at a pivotal point of a game, he has gone beyond what is asked of him in his current role and has done so in impressive fashion, showcasing flashes of athleticism that go beyond that of Brandon Bass (the player Wright was compared to on his signing) and even that of Tyson Chandler. His alley-oop from the JET in the 4th quarter last night was the most impressive dunk I have ever seen from a Dallas Maverick, including Vince Carter’s from Saturday night. Again, we must temper our excitement. Wright is doing this against the bottom of the opposition’s bench, but we’re beginning to see why the guy was a former lottery pick.

• I understand the Detroit Pistons are in rebuilding mode and they don’t have a lot to play for this season, but I’ve always thought of their franchise as one with loyal fans who would stick with their team through thick & thin. The attendance at last night’s game looked like a Stars’ game. The announced attention was 10,000, and I know the Palace is a spacious arena, but it looked closer to 5 or 6K from TV. Yet even without the empty seats, including court side seats, the Pistons still set fans on the Mavs bench?

• Watching last night’s game, I kept on debating whether the Mavs’ defense was that good or if the Pistons’ offense was that anemic. The stats would seem to point to the latter. The Pistons entered the game as NBA’s lowest-scoring team, but scored above their season average and shot a respectable 43.5% from the field. Not to mention, the Pistons’ bench outscored the Mavs’ bench 48-42. However, for the first time all season, we saw the Mavericks execute with a high-energy level on defense and have their most successful night with their zone defense, which was huge in last year’s playoff run. The Pistons’ are a terrible offensive basketball team, but the Mavs defense is improving.

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It’s no secret that the Mavericks have struggled with the New Orleans Hornets over the past few seasons. A lot of  that had to do with Chris Paul and David West, so with those two players no longer suiting up for the Hornets, I felt the Mavs stood a much better shot entering Saturday night’s game. However, the Hornets still suited up two perennial Mavs killers–Jarrett Jack and Carl Landry. I felt confident that if we prevented those two from going off, the Mavs would have a great shot at pulling off the “W”. Jack and Landry combined for 25 points on 33% shooting, which is well below what they have averaged against the Mavs in the past.

• With Jason Kidd sidelined for at least three games, I was interested to see how Rick Carlisle used his lineup. Last night, Carlisle opted to start Vince Carter at the 2 and Delonte West at the point. Carter responded with his best game in a Mavs uniform (13 points, 3 rebounds), which included one of his trademark, posterizing dunks over the Hornets Emeka Okafor. As I mentioned a few days ago, all we need from Carter is for him to serve as this team’s Jerry Stackhouse. Last night, he did that and some.

• Ian Mahinmi continues to impress off the bench. Though not as polished as Tyson Chandler, Mahinmi does have flashes of athleticism that make us forget we failed to resign one of the key pieces to last year’s championship run. Heywood continues to be a solid presence on both offense and defense. At this point of the season, I think you would have to say that the center position has been one of the strongest on this roster.

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•  Several adjectives could used to describe last night’s game, including “weird.” The Mavs outrebounded the Spurs, 52-32, yet lost by 20 and managed only 71 points.  The Spurs shot 48.5% from behind the three-point line, yet shot under 40% from the field. On top of that, they shot only 56% from the free throw line. The Mavericks’ shooting was even worse. They shot 35.1% from the field and an atrocious 5% from the behind the three-point line. FIVE PERCENT! Part of the reason the Mavericks struggled so much offensively is that they had absolutely no rhythm or ball movement on the offensive side of the ball, dishing out only 11 assists as a team.

• Dirk Nowitzki’s 1,001st game with the Mavs certainly is not one for the highlight reel. The Spurs held Dirk to 6 points and 6 rebounds. Dirk went 3 for 11 from the field and 0 for 1 from the free throw line. Dirk’s only trip to the free throw line came on an illegal defense call. When Dirk doesn’t get to the line, you know the Mavs offense is trouble.

• As off as Dirk was, his teammates were not much better. Of the 13 Mavs that saw action last night, only one–Rodrique Beaubois–finished with a positive +/- score. The Mavs most effective weapon of the night? How about Delonte West, who registered 10 points on 4 of 6 shooting.  All things considered, it was easily the Mavs worst performance of the “Dirk era” and has to rank in the bottom 5 performances in franchise history.